2010 MN DFL Governor’s Poll III (along with a question…)

I’ve been talking to a few people about qualities people look for when trying to rank candidates who have the same political ideology when it comes to issues. I am talking about attributes like authenticity, charisma, experience and toughness to name just a few.

Along with some help, I am going to give a one through ten ranking of the candidates in at least 12 non-issue categories. I say “at least 12” because I welcome your opinion of what non-issue important qualities or attributes you look at. Some will be more subjective than others, and everything about it is completely unscientific.

So, to continue the unscientific-ness of this experiment, I think it is time for another poll. As I have said before web polls like this tend to be more of a demonstration of organization than a truly meaningful anything. I am just curious to see what happens, and how it will correspond to the rankings.

And don’t forget, leave a comment or email me with non-issue attributes you like in a candidate.

MNDem.com Poll III Results

Please read results note below.

Entenza – 1542
Rukavina – 968
Kelliher – 935
Thissen – 736
Marty – 304
Bakk – 175
Gaertner – 114
Dayton – 101
Rybak – 99
Kelley – 87

Results Note:
Please keep in mind, despite my attempt to limit voting to one vote, it was much easier to vote more than once than I thought it would be.  If I do a future poll, I will correct that.

I am going to reiterate, this is simply for fun.  There is no scientific value to this poll.  There is no reason to interpret the results.  I was initially interested in how social media would be used to get word out if getting the word out was important to a campaign.  A huge amount of people came to the website from Facebook.

Each campaign was notified within minutes of the poll’s posting.  The Entenza and Rukavina campaigns were the first to post a facebook link.  Maybe there is a correlation to that and the results?

 

You should be limited to one vote, but check back for results in about a week. The end time all depends on when I have time to end it next weekend. Thanks for voting.

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30 thoughts on “2010 MN DFL Governor’s Poll III (along with a question…)”

  1. Meant to vote for Rukavina, but wasn’t paying close enough attention and accidentally voted for the wrong Tom (opps sorry)

  2. Meant to vote for Rukavina, but wasn’t paying close enough attention and accidentally voted for the wrong Tom (oops sorry)

  3. Good luck Paul, I’ve heard wonderful things about you from
    Roberta Mlekodaj from Briggs. It’s a real struggle running for state office and I wish you the best and will contribute to your campaign.

    Eileen Biernat

    1. From talking to people, I really believe Matt probably has that much support. The two people that seem to be rising to the top in support are Entenza and Kelliher.

  4. Oh no….! The Democratic party is having trouble learning again. We win when the candidate and what he or she stands for is in allignment with our values, and trust our hearts (Paul Wellstone). We lose or almost lose when it should have been a walk when we pick our candidate by calculation of the nexus of percieved electability via money, name, and their careful triangulation of the issues (Al Franken). My heart says Marty first. RT second. Entenza way back there.

  5. Here’s some good ideas, maybe… depending on what you want to do:

    dashboard > polls > manage polls > choose select more than one answer = “no”

    to check on voting patterns (is someone voting a hundred times?) go to dashboard > polls > the window lists the polls, go to the poll and under “action” click “logs”.

    1. I already have it set to one answer and block repeat voters. I just tried it and it didn’t record a second vote from me, so it seems OK. If people are doing something to vote multiple times, I don’t mind. This is not a real poll. It is partially for fun, partially as an experiment, and partially to drive people to the site.

      In my mind it works. So far, I’ve gotten two email suggestions on how people view similar candidates, one email insult and one email questioning why there is not a republican candidate. I notified all of the campaigns of the poll and I wanted to find out who was the fastest to get the poll news out to their supporters, I got that. And finally, in the last two days, 13 old blog posts have been clicked with nearly 100 views.

      Most of what I do is for my own amusement, and what I think is missing in CD2 and SD36. I won’t complain about traffic, even if others think there is something wrong with the process. As I said to Jim S. if you are upset about this poll, don’t pay attention to it. In reality, very few people will.

      1. If people are doing something to vote multiple times, I don’t mind.

        No need to look at the logs for same IP numbers and take the poll down if there is any messing?

        PS, If I found any messing, I’d keep that info to myself. You said this was for fun and I bet people don’t know you can see the voter’s IP number.

        BTW, I live in CD2 and 36, too. So, howdy neighbor.

  6. I actually don’t see any info on the voters. I don’t see a log available either. That said, I am not the most high tech saavy person. I just get by.

  7. Although it may be interesting to consider a candidate’s integrity, competence, optimism, patience, persistency, interpersonal skills, life achievements, etc., too often many voters don’t vote for the person that most conforms to their views on the issues, but instead vote on “silly” things … like speaking style, physical appearance, negative ads, etc.

    At this stage, rather than a poll of who you would vote for, why not ask “Who do you feel should terminate their campaign?” My point is that I can tell you that there are three on your list that I would not object to seeing on the November ballot, but there are many more that would be a major disappointment … and as an independent voter that would make me look harder at the MN-GOP candidate and IP candidate.

    Being blunt, the DFL has had a tendency to offer candidates that are unappealing or flawed (not everyone but Humphrey, Moe and Hatch in the gubernatorial race and Franken in the Senate fit the mold) … in Minnesota, the MN-GOP can get somewhere in the mid-30’s on a regular basis, the DFL a little more, but it’s how the independents break … so instead of endorsing a candidate that DFLers will like, endorse one that will appeal to independent voters … here’s the question that needs to be asked, “Do you want another four years with a new Governor Veto obstructing the state legislature ?”

    1. Great comment, as usual. I wish I had thought of that poll idea. Maybe next time I think of a poll I will steal your idea.

      I’ve been guilty of supporting the candidate I think can win, rather than who I think would be the best official. I still have a hard time not considering that, despite agreeing with you on that.

    2. There are only three you would not object to? I am overwhelmed by the number of super candidates who are relatively moderate… we DFlers have a very good pool to choose from.

      You say you are an Independent… no thanks, then, many times, for the candidates you ultimately help elect. There is a wiser way to influence your politicians.

    3. I like your commentary. I think you are on to something. Hatch, Moe, Humphrey, Franken, all flawed candidates who failed to turrn the independants their way. Where is the antipathy? Who has high negatives?

      There are polls out there that show these feelings in the electorate. In the last Senate campaign, Al Franken had everything going for him from the standpoint of money, name recognition, moderate and even in terms of pro-Israel and pro-nuke, some conservative positions on policies. But polls showed that he had “high negatives”, that is, he wasn’t percieved as likable by a significant portion of the voters, a la Mike Hatch.

      If you want to talk about electability, knowing that the independant voter is going to swing the vote usually, you really ought to look at the “negatives” as measured in polling.

      1. Gotta cater to the base, dude. Sorry. Independents already have their own candidates, and while I am at it, I can never figure out the logic behind their stance on the issues. Seems like single issue voting combined with “what I don’t like”. Lost vote = Wrong way to influence, IMO.

    1. Just to clarify: my post above was in response to a post that was removed (see note below). I know we all have feelings, but my post is simply asking that we be respectful in expressing them – particularly re: people in the party we support.

  8. I’m just going to leave a note here in place of the comment left by “Larry P CD7.” I deleted the original comment. To rephrase what he said, he doesn’t think Matt Entenza is good leader for the party and he thinks there might be some trust issues. I realize this is just a blog, but I don’t want anything defamatory on my site. But thank s Larry P. Sorry I deleted it.

  9. Congratulations on an outstanding response …. 5,061 votes is truly impressive considering that this is the “off-season” and obviously a big increase from the first poll.
    Regardless if some may have worked to “stack the deck”, it bodes well that so many people are interested in their candidates. Those that got good numbers should be pleased and those that did not, know that there are voters that are very interested in the outcome of this election.

    May I put on my PolySci hat and offer an early assessment of the 2010 elections and a suggestion for a different poll ?

    As a preface, these are my personal thoughts based on historical patterns and not represented by “my heart”. I thought your 5/27/09 column offered a realistic assessment of the Pros and Cons for the candidates … and that is essential to think as other voters do.

    That said, the 2010 election will offer “A” challenge for the DFL … “A” as in apathy, advertising, anger, agenda, allies, and alternatives.

    Apathy will be a greater concern this election since there is not a US Senate seat or Presidential office being contested. The layout of the US House races favor that all five Democrats should be easily re-elected … even in the First, which some may have thought Congressman Tim Walz could face a re-invigorated Republican base, does not seem to have any outstanding candidates currently being profiled. The voter’s Minnesota legislative district may offer some contested races, but in most districts, incumbents are routinely re-elected. So the only motivating contests will be gubernatorial contest. Historically, off-term elections produce a lower turnout.
    Contrasting the motivation for the Democrats is the US House races for the Republicans … Representatives Bachmann and Paulsen expect to have competition and are fundraising for an aggressive campaign. The MN-GOP also has another motivating contest … the Secretary of State office. It’s untrue that Secretary Ritchie stole the election for Senator Franken, but the innuendo will be repeated so often that the facts are lost in the voter’s mind. In the legislative districts, the MN-GOP will aggressive defending their seats under the mantra of “keeping the DFL from controlling government”.

    Advertising by the MN-GOP will take a negative tone as an effort to define the image of the DFL candidate … look back to Senator Franken’s campaign where he was defined as a tax cheating porn-writing comedian. Sadly, nowadays it seems that nothing is off the table (for both sides) from alcohol, appearance, adultery (and that’s just the “A”s.) The MN-GOP most likely will have their candidate early and will be fundraising and defining the DFL candidates in negative connotations that as voters begin to pay attention will already have their minds infected.

    Anger is a great motivator … the Tea Party activists are not only vocal but they will show up at the voting booth. Anger is created out of fear … fear that someone is going to impact you.

    Agenda for the MN-GOP will be the same as in prior elections … Low or Lower Taxes. No one likes to pay taxes and self-examination is normal … “will they raise MY taxes?” As much as the talk may be about “tax fairness”, many voters like to hear what they want to hear … and that MN-GOP message hits home … even if it is unwise.

    Allies will be those outside groups that influence the electorate. Who has the natural allies and how will they be motivated … special interest groups range from the NRA, MCCL, Chamber of Commerce, seniors, veterans and the various labor groups. If a party puts up a candidate that does not threaten the interest group directly, they may not be as “revved up” … for example, Congressman Walz has had excellent ratings from the NRA … effectively minimizing their impact in the First District.

    Alternatives are really the Achilles heel of the Minnesota two major political parties. The MN-GOP can count on somewhere a based in the low 30%’s in a typical election … the DFL is probably in the higher 30%’s … the problem is where will the independent voters go … and will the political party’s nominee actually turn off enough of the base’s voters to make the voter not vote, or worse yet vote for someone else. The Independence Party is truly a non-functioning political party since they have no elected members in the current state government however they have provided a “choice” on the ballot that a voter doesn’t have to voter for a DFLer or MN-GOPer. While many DFLers believe that the election of Governor Pawlenty have been aided by the Independence Party, the most recent altered election is from the US Senate race. While Dean Barkley received 437,505 votes which are more than 360,000 votes that a typical IP senatorial candidate would receive, the impact was more greatly impacted on Senator Norm Coleman. Simply, Coleman did not lose by a couple hundred votes but instead by 63,203. When Minnesotans went to the polls on Election Day, it was widely expected that all of Minnesota’s Electoral College votes would go to Obama, but McCain polled 1,275,409. Now when those same McCain voters looked at RINO TARP-supporting Norm Coleman, 63,203 McCain supporters opted to “throw their vote away” by voting for Barkley. Hence the IP alternative is a serious threat to both parties.

    Looking at these “A” factors, the DFL candidate for Governor has potential problems.
    Now, you may think that I would propose that your next poll be :
    “Of apathy, advertising, anger, agenda, allies, or alternatives, which will impact the DFL the most … and what can you do to counter that ?”
    But it’s not.

    No, I propose instead that a future poll ask :
    “What Cities will decide the next Governor ?”

    The reason that I suggest that is that the “A” factors need to be targeted to the Cities that will have the most impact.
    In other words, if your poll forecasts the key cities then an “A” effort can be applied to those voters.
    Knowing which cities are critical, apathy will be addressed as supporters will realize how important their efforts are. Advertising can be localized to define the candidate’s image … not allowing the MN-GOP to control the conversation. Anger can be repressed if voters feel the candidate is listening to them. Agenda can be focused so that local concerns are addressed. Allies can be developed. Alternatives can be minimized.
    Think how effective a candidate can be by addressing a city’s Chamber of Commerce luncheon … explaining the candidate’s passionate issues, addressing the mischaracterizations, and offering solutions that the Chamber will want … but don’t waste your time in a city that the DFL has strong support, but instead in those that will make a difference.

    In my opinion, there are four cities that will determine the next Governor — Northfield, Owatonna, St. Cloud and Rochester.

    Here’s my logic. Northfield and Owatonna have recently elected new DFLers to the state legislature (Kory Kath in MN-House 26A and Kevin Dahle, MN-Senate 25); St. Cloud is Bachmann territory; and Rochester is where Pawlenty won in 2006 although Tim Walz defeated incumbent Gil Gutknecht in his home county. A successful DFL gubernatorial campaign will require coattails from other races … especially if the Independence Party candidate is viable … legislative races will not have a significant impact from the IP, but the message that can be sent by those candidates is to support the DFL candidate … just ask Norm Coleman how it feels to know that he lost because MN-GOPers never thought that a vote for Barkley was a vote against Coleman. Franken did not steal the election, but enough MN-GOP rejected Coleman to earn him the victory.

    If the DFL sets the right strategy to win those cities, they may be overcome the “A”dvantage that the MN-GOP has.

    Besides, your poll could provide great insight to the candidates … they will know which cities to target and who will be there to support them.

    Those are my thoughts … your reaction ?

    1. I don’t know any of this first hand. I can only say what I read and what I hear from people who are smarter than me on Almanac or something like that. What I understand is that Rochester and St. Cloud are keys to a win. I think I am right that both cities tend to lean to the right. Making an inroad there for a DFL candidate might give them enough to push them over the top.

      The Northern suburbs are also a key for a state wide election. Candidates can’t be beat by 20 or 25 percentage points in those areas. I think one of the problems in SD36 is that there are people that know the local GOP candidates are going to win, so because of apathy, they decide waiting in line to vote is an inconvenience. Thus, the GOP candidates win by huge margins, when it really should be much closer. Getting those people out in Rochester, St. Cloud, the northern suburbs and even Farmington is what needs to happen for the DFL to have success. There are enough DFL supporters to route both the GOP and the Independence parties, there just needs to be a decent candidate who can connect with a percent of that large number of voters who right now don’t care.

  10. In my opinion, there are four cities that will determine the next Governor — Northfield, Owatonna, St. Cloud and Rochester.

    In my opinion (as a Northfielder), Northfield is a good one to have on that list. Owatonna, eh, not so much. Also adding: Traditionally, the northern MN region is important as a whole. The metro area is the DFLer’s base.

    This election will be like no other in recent history. A lot of foreclosures, health care decisions not being made very fast, a lot of worry about IOU’s to the schools, roads falling apart, revenue needs, etc. Personally, I’d like to see some change in the red zones such as Scott/Carver County and parts of District 6.

  11. Ha ha, pretty funny how we’re talking DFL strategy online. 🙂 Good thing none of us really know what’s going on, there.

    I would guess statewides focus on more than just a few cities.

    Have a good day, all.

  12. FYI : Rasmussen has released a

    survey for the MN-GOP and DFL gubernatorial primaries. From the 402 Dems, Dayton and Rybak tied at 30%, then 20% undecided, followed by MAK at 8%, Entenza at 5% and other at 5% … now, one of the keys is that they only asked about four candidates, so the ones that said Other knew that others are running.

    Do your readers have a reaction to the poll ?

    I am skeptical of its value. First, it listed only four candidates … and those with the most name appeal (and geographic population) got the most votes … and since it did not ask you to name who you would support before telling you the names, it will likely result in well known names. For example, on the GOP side, Coleman got 50% be the preference of 330 GOP members which is a shock as Seifert only got 11% and Laura Brod who is not currently running (but was one of the four candidates listed in the poll) got 5% … and poor Tom Emmer got only 1%. Now, those may be GOP voters, but the nomination will start (and likely end) at the nominating convention … where those activists have not been fond of Senator Coleman.

    1. My only reaction is that of likely DFL voters, many have not started paying attention yet. I have a strongly DFL voting relative who does not participate in the caucus, Dayton might be the only one she is familiar with. At this point, the survey should probably be likely caucus attendees. Two of the four they mentioned will not move to a primary if they don’t get the endorsement.

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