The Farmington Caucus

I convened the Farmington, Castle Rock, Empire and Eureka caucuses last night. Between the nine precincts, only 29 people attended. The voting results were:

Rybak – 7 – 24.1%
Kelliher – 6 – 20.7%
Marty – 5 – 17.2%
Thissen – 5 – 17.2%
Uncommitted – 3 – 10.3%
Bakk – 1 – 3.4%
Entenza – 1 – 3.4%
Gaertner – 1 – 3.4%
Kelley – 0
Montez – 0
Rukavina – 0
Savior – 0

I was surprised how low the turnout was, but I am not surprised by the results for the most part. Statewide, I expected the race to be between Rybak and Kelliher, and that proved true.

Statewide numbers with almost 80% reporting:

Rybak – 21.9%
Kelliher – 20.1%
Uncommitted – 14.6%
Marty – 9.6%
Rukavina – 7.2%
Thissen – 7.2%
Entenza – 6.7%
Bakk – 6.2%
Kelley – 4..2%
Gaertner – 2.1%

A couple of negative observations:

Entenza’s number seemed surprisingly low. I expected him to finish third or forth. That looks bad. Now I see why Dayton didn’t include his name in the straw poll.

Rukavina put out a statement saying he was humbled by the support. I assume he felt humbled in a positive way. Finishing in the middle of the pack with 7% does not seem like it should be humbling to me.

Gaertner has decided to run in the primary. Why?

Thissen’s results were disappointing. I expected Paul to compete with Entenza for third or forth.

As much as I like Steve Kelley, the endorsement will not fall into his lap with this group of candidates like it almost did a few years ago. Kelley should consider dropping out too.

Jottings and Questions III

Nobody is going to go unscathed as political leaders try to figure out how to deal with the latest state economic news. We are all going to bear the brunt for the fiasco we have gotten ourselves into. But I am continually annoyed that the people with the least to give to solve the solution are the ones who feel it the most. I don’t believe we can solve the problem by taxing the rich, but the poorest people have the greatest need for safety and security. You are naive to think a person not taking their anti-psychotic drugs or a mother forced to leave her kids alone to make money won’t affect us financially in the future someway.

As a state we need to cut a lot of things. I am surprised there isn’t an outcry to cut the governor’s and legislator’s wages. Cut them in half and halve their per diem too. That is a few million dollars. You have to start somewhere.

I saw some (and listened to more) of the House Ways & Means Committee “Presentation about the November Forecast” online Thursday. SD36 was represented by both Pat Garofalo and Mary Liz Holberg at the meeting. The odd thing is that Pat Garofalo was wearing an Adrian Peterson Vikings Jersey instead of the standard legislator’s button down shirt. I figure either he wants to support the freedom to drive 109 miles an hour, or he is for a publically financed stadium for the Vikings despite the economic news he was there to discuss. I sent him an email making a little joke about it. I don’t know for sure, but I assume he was attending the Vikings Rally at the Capitol that afternoon.

Speaking of stadiums, did you see that Murray’s Steakhouse is going to have a concession stand at the Bull’s Eye, or whatever catchy name people are going to start calling Target Field. Mmmm. So long Famous Dave’s. Only 129 days until opening day at the Field.

129 days is more than twice as long until the caucus. Only 59 days until the caucus. I’m not exactly sure when the SD36 convention is, but probably within a month of the caucus. That means I have about 3 months to decide which gubernatorial candidate to support. I’m really flip-flopping on who to support. One day it is one candidate and the next it is another. To be totally honest though, I have eliminated Dayton, Marty, Gaertner and Rukavina from my consideration. That leaves six more to decide from. I’d gladly meet any of them at the ballpark for a Murray’s steak sandwich to discuss issues…

With 10 candidates for governor (12 if you want to count Ole Savior and Peter Roess) vying for support and money, a little edge on the money side could really separate a candidate. All reports are the Entenza already has an edge, but Wednesday afternoon he was lucky enough to be on the receiving end of a Washington D.C. fundraiser. While the South Dakota and North Dakota Senators were among the hosts, it seems that neither Senator Klobuchar nor Senator Franken were present in the stories I found.

Speaking of fundraising, MN Moderate to Liberal Political Roundtable by Holly Cairns is doing a very interesting test. She is offering to sell ad space to the candidates. It is a very reasonable rate, and in return, she will work to promote the candidate’s messages. If you look to the right, I am promoting candidates. A look at my blog stats shows that in the last 30 days, DFL candidate links to the right have had 136 clicks. Over the last 3 months, there have been 797 candidate link clicks. There are a lot bigger blogs than mine out there, so bloggers are driving people to the sites. Maybe a little financial support for bloggers is a good thing.

Speaking of blog statistics, I like to look at the searches people use to access my blog. My two favorite searches in the last few weeks that led somebody to my website:

“Tom Emmer Crazy Governor”
and
“who the hell is dan powers DFL”

I think most people coming to this site know Dan Powers is running against John Kline in CD2. Down in CD1, Rep. Tim Walz is holding another town hall meeting. Walz has had two meetings in the last few months. Congressman Kline has only held two meetings in his last few terms!

2010 MN DFL Governor’s Poll III (along with a question…)

I’ve been talking to a few people about qualities people look for when trying to rank candidates who have the same political ideology when it comes to issues. I am talking about attributes like authenticity, charisma, experience and toughness to name just a few.

Along with some help, I am going to give a one through ten ranking of the candidates in at least 12 non-issue categories. I say “at least 12” because I welcome your opinion of what non-issue important qualities or attributes you look at. Some will be more subjective than others, and everything about it is completely unscientific.

So, to continue the unscientific-ness of this experiment, I think it is time for another poll. As I have said before web polls like this tend to be more of a demonstration of organization than a truly meaningful anything. I am just curious to see what happens, and how it will correspond to the rankings.

And don’t forget, leave a comment or email me with non-issue attributes you like in a candidate.

MNDem.com Poll III Results

Please read results note below.

Entenza – 1542
Rukavina – 968
Kelliher – 935
Thissen – 736
Marty – 304
Bakk – 175
Gaertner – 114
Dayton – 101
Rybak – 99
Kelley – 87

Results Note:
Please keep in mind, despite my attempt to limit voting to one vote, it was much easier to vote more than once than I thought it would be.  If I do a future poll, I will correct that.

I am going to reiterate, this is simply for fun.  There is no scientific value to this poll.  There is no reason to interpret the results.  I was initially interested in how social media would be used to get word out if getting the word out was important to a campaign.  A huge amount of people came to the website from Facebook.

Each campaign was notified within minutes of the poll’s posting.  The Entenza and Rukavina campaigns were the first to post a facebook link.  Maybe there is a correlation to that and the results?

 

You should be limited to one vote, but check back for results in about a week. The end time all depends on when I have time to end it next weekend. Thanks for voting.

Which DFL Candidates Connect With Us

Facebook and Twitter are important tools for candidates.  It surprises me that a couple of the candidates for governor are not utilizing the medium well, or at all.  Statewide campaigns end up being big machines, and the social networking sites are a great tool to either provide information or plan meetings.  The social network sites can even create mini-campaign machines for individuals to bundle information from the candidates they support to distribute to their friends.

While Facebook and Twitter seem to be a great tools for candidate’s information, I contend that the personal notes that can be posted have an effect in making a candidate more human, and less politician. 

If everything is campaign, campaign, campaign, people tune out.  But throw in a little personal note that normal people can relate to, and the candidate has made a connection.  Make a few connections and you have a chance to lasso a committed delegate.  That’s the current goal right now right, to have delegates going into the local conventions, making the pitch and working the walking caucus. 

Connections and friendship are what get people to work for a candidate, and feel that sense of required attendance at the caucus and conventions.  Facebook is such an easy way to do it.  Mark Dayton has made comments about his sons, grandfather and a family that adopted a few Russian kids recently.  Yes, it is all campaigning, but it isn’t pure propaganda, it’s personal.  And just think how impressed some people would be if a candidate commented on their post.

Of course I realize some candidates have people posting for them, I didn’t say we still need to trust them, I’m just saying it creates connection.  So what would connect us today?  Something interesting has happened over the last couple of days.  There have been many posts on Facebook about the Twins, the Vikings and Brett Favre, and to a lesser extent the Wild and Gophers.  Sorry Timberwolves fans, zero.  Anyway, people I don’t recall posting about sports have posted about those subjects, and it is the amount of sports related posts that made me think about the candidates and social networking.

I was curious which candidates were posting about these events of unimportance that seem to be important to so many of us.  I knew Mark Dayton and R.T. Rybak had posted sports related post what about the rest of the candidates? 

I looked at the post from the beginning of the month until just after the Twins win tonight.

Margaret Anderson Kelliher
Nothing

Tom Bakk
“is pretty impressed with the stretch of Minnesota sports going on right now . . . Gophers, Twin, Vikings, Wild, and the TC Marathon. Rock on, MN.”

Chris Coleman
TC Marathon comment on Twitter

Mark Dayton
“Celebrating now! VIKINGS 30- Packers 23. 4th Quarter a little “too close for comfort.” Sidney Rice is an all-pro on-sides kick catcher!” Twitter
“VIKINGS 14-Packers 7, 2nd Q. Too early to celebrate, but #4 can still throw the ball!!!” Twitter
“CONGRATULATIONS, Twins, for your sweep of KC, & GOOD LUCK in Tuesday’s game against Detroit. Baseball at the Dome lives! AND GO VIKINGS!” Twitter

Matt Entenza
Nothing

Steve Kelley
I don’t think he Tweets, and I am not friends on Facebook yet.

John Marty
“…enjoyed watching the Vikings win last night.” Facebook (by the way, that is so vanilla)

Tom Rukavina
“Brett Favre continues to show how much better he is for MN than T-Paw! Go Vikes!!” Twitter

R.T. Rybak
“Next up from the sports capitol of the world: Thunderdome, Part II. Go Twins!” Twitter
“Why do otherwise high-functioning people turn into Cheeseheads during Packer week? Clearly, a breach of border security.” Twitter

Paul Thissen
“Great Donkey Chili in Pine County – listening to Twins win and Metrodome memories on the way up & back to boot.” Twitter

Nothing really big, no earth shattering news or enlightenment, I’m just pointing out an example of a missed opportunity to connect.

My Dinner with R.T.

This evening I attended the DFL 2nd Congressional District Fundraiser held at Stonebrooke Golf Club in Shakopee. The event began with a golf scramble, and continued with a Health Care Forum, however, I didn’t attend those two events. I barely got to the fundraiser in time to sit down for dinner.

As we walked in, I saw several gubernatorial candidates, and several State House and Senate members, as well as a few of the candidates who are running for House and Senate. I said hello to Paul Thissen who was standing at the registration table, then we made our way into the dining area. There were no assigned seats, so we claimed a couple seats with a good view of the speaker’s podium. At one point Rebecca Otto was going to sit at our table, but was unsure of what seats were available. I was a little disappointed when she didn’t sit down, because I would have liked to talk to her. But, my disappointment disappeared when Mayor R.T. Rybak sat down with us at the table.

R.T. Rybak is very impressive. If I were hosting a party, I would love to have him there just to be part of the conversation. He is very personable and seems very intelligent. I realize people already know that, as did I, but I thought it was worth pointing out. I had a pleasant dinner talking to a personal trainer, Janet Frank Atkinson, Mayor Rybak and my mom.

There were many speakers. Steve Kelley was the first speaker. Steve was celebrating his 30-somthingth anniversary today, but came to speak quickly to the group before heading back to his family. Mark Dayton also had family commitments, but spoke for a couple minutes at the beginning of the event. Rebecca Otto spoke, but made it clear she is not running for governor. Then we took a break from the speakers for a live auction.

State Senator Kevin Dahle was the auctioneer. I was told that the normal auctioneer couldn’t come because of prior commitments, but was amazed when Senator Dahle began speaking like an auctioneer. It was impressive. One of the more popular items was a dinner for 8 at the restaurant of your choice with Mark Dayton. Mark Dayton made the joke that the only bad part of the deal was that he had to be one of the guests.

After the auction we had a break to eat and talk, before speakers began again. Lori Swanson kicked it off, not as a gubernatorial candidate, but as a candidate for re-election as Attorney General. The remaining gubernatorial candidates got two minutes each to speak. Margaret Anderson Kelliher spoke. She is a very good speaker. Tom Bakk was next, and unlike MAK, he had to introduce himself. Chris Coleman made a funny joke about one of the auction baskets. Matt Entenaza gave a typical Entenza quick speech, followed by Susan Gaertner. John Marty made the comment that Governor Pawlenty has done to the state what President George Bush did to the country. That got some applause. Mayor Rybak mentioned his family from New Prague, which connected him with Laura Brod in my mind, connected by town only. Rep. Thissen was the last to speak, emphasizing that we need to “think big” to ensure we win in 2010.

It was a fun evening, and great to get a little taste of the candidate’s two –minute stump speeches. I did like Mayor Rybak’s comment when he returned to the table: Two-minutes goes by really fast.

Margaret Anderson Kelliher wins the MNDem.com Mid-Summer Poll

The mid-summer poll is closed. As I said in my introduction to the poll, it isn’t really going to tell us anything. The poll was simply for fun. I expected a couple of potential outcomes, but neither happened. I expected John Marty or Matt Entenza to win the poll. Marty only received seven votes and Entenza finished fourth. Like I said, it doesn’t mean much. But something did surprise me in the poll. Margaret Anderson Kelliher, not only received the largest vote total, but dominated.

The funny thing about the results are that in a recent conversation I had with a friend, we discussed the fact that the two top candidates might end up being MAK and Thissen, just as these poll numbers show.

The more I talk to Democrats, the more I hear “I like John Marty, but I don’t think he can win.” I hear very little things in the cities about Bakk or Rukavina. I tend to hear negative things about Gaertner. I’ve heard “I love Rybak as my mayor, but can he win across the state?”

So are Paul Thissen and Margaret Anderson Kelliher really the favorites? The only problem I think MAK had was the budget fiasco, but unlike what I thought, it has all become Pawlenty’s budget fiasco. Thissen’s name recognition problem is being resolved by his regular appearances at DFL events. I’m not so sure MAK and Thissen will not be the two favorites once we approach winter, and throw R.T. in the mix too.

Poll Results (Total votes 405):

Margaret Anderson Kelliher – 170 votes
Paul Thissen – 66 votes
Steve Kelley – 53 votes
Matt Entenza – 31 votes
R.T. Rybak – 20 votes
Susan Gaertner – 19 votes
Mark Dayton – 16 votes
Chris Coleman – 10 votes
John Marty – 7 votes
Another Party’s Candidate – 5 votes
A Different DFLer – 4 votes
Tom Bakk – 2 votes
Tom Rukavina – 2 votes

MNDem.com 2010 Minnesota Gubernatorial Poll (2009 Mid-Summer)

Web polls for candidates tend to be more of a demonstration of organization than a truly meaningful anything.  But I love polls and statisitics, so I can’t help myself.

If you had to decide today, which candidate for governor would you choose?

The Poll ends Friday night.

Poll Results (Total votes 405):

Margaret Anderson Kelliher – 170 votes
Paul Thissen – 66 votes
Steve Kelley – 53 votes
Matt Entenza – 31 votes
R.T. Rybak – 20 votes
Susan Gaertner – 19 votes
Mark Dayton – 16 votes
Chris Coleman – 10 votes
John Marty – 7 votes
Another Party’s Candidate – 5 votes
A Different DFLer – 4 votes
Tom Bakk – 2 votes
Tom Rukavina – 2 votes

FYI:

In the previous poll I did a few months ago, the top five finishers in order were Dayton, Marty, Thissen, Somebody Else and Entenza.  In that poll, I did not include Rybak, Coleman, Kelliher or Rukavina.

Compromise Will Not Solve the Problem

This is a busy week for my family.  My middle son has hockey camp every day, and finishes three of those evenings with  two lacrosse games and a lacrosse practice.  My oldest son turns 12 on Friday, is having a friend birthday party, which will include a matinee showing of some movie popular with tweens and a family birthday party at grandpa and grandma’s house.  My wife not only is responsible for planning and getting those two to all of there activities, but she will tote around a four year-old while she does it.  Then to top everything off, I throw a little wrench into the whole week with foot surgery.

The great thing is, we have healthcare.  My wife can concentrate on the clock and the kids, without the added stress of worrying about how we are going to pay my medical bill.  Unfortunately, over a million Minnesotans don’t have that “luxury.”  I put luxury in quotes because that word was intended to be a sarcastic shot at republicans who think healthcare is a privilege, only available to those who can afford it.

Healthcare is right.  The Declaration of Independence says our inalienable rights are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  Life is the first right, and yet 18,000 Americans die every year from preventable illness because they don’t have access to adequate medical care.  Do those 18,000 people each year just not have rights because they don’t have enough money?  And how can you pursue happiness if you are spending hours arguing with an insurance rep that sees a declined procedure as added dollars to the bottom line even when you do have access to healthcare?

It is a right.  I have always considered myself vary pragmatic.  I would look at an issue like healthcare, and I would be grateful for any baby steps taken that work toward improving the situation.  Do you know what I mean?  If we can’t fix something 100%, at least 25% is better than nothing.  Well I’m not so sure anymore.

How many of us are tied to a job because of health benefits?  Where is the liberty in that?  How much individual freedom would we have if society agreed that everybody deserves health benefits, regardless of job or income.  Freedom to start a small business.  Freedom to change jobs when you have a family member with what would be considered a preexisting condition.  Freedom to go see the doctor when you feel like you need to see the doctor. 

I don’t think I am willing to accept a partial solution anymore.  I want health benefits for everyone.  I want health benefits for my children when they turn 23 and don’t think they need them.  I want health benefits for the person who is depressed, who can’t afford medication, and by simply talking to a counselor might be prevented from committing suicide.  I want health benefits for the family in the large home in Apple Valley who find out their private insurance won’t cover their daughter’s illness, forcing the family into financial troubles.  I want a small business, to invest profits in the company, rather than increase their outlay on health benefits because one employee contracted a catastrophic illness.

We cannot live with a 25% solution this time!  We need 100% solution, total care coverage.  At a recent meeting John Marty said compromise will not solve the problem.  Compromise will not solve the problem.  There is a majority of us out there who want this, and we need to take the bull by the horns and stop letting people like John Kline spew scare tactic bull from their mouths. 

Speaking of John Kline, I saw a message he might (I’m not counting on it) be in Burnsville Wednesday afternoon at Burnhaven library. 

Congressman John Kline’s mobile office to visit Burnsville
Minnesota Congressman John Kline’s mobile office comes to Burnsville Wednesday, June 24.  Kline will make his stop there from noon-2 p.m. at the Burnhaven Library, 1101 W. County Road 42 in Burnsville.  

Rep. Kline will probably have some sort of rules that prevent you and I from speaking to him directly, or prevent him from directly addressing our issues, his supporters will probably be organized enough to have a control perimeter around him too, but it might be good to show up and attempt to engage him.

CD2 Central Committee Meeting – John Marty

The little Savage Library meeting room was standing room only for the CD2 Central Committee Meeting held on the evening of Tuesday, June 9, 2009.   At one point, I counted 41 people in attendance, with at least 4 sitting on the window ledge and four standing because there were not enough chairs.  It may have even been a little higher attendance, I only counted to see the number of people who were there when candidate for Governor John Marty spoke. 

It becomes old hat for regular meeting attendees to visit with candidates.  I think I heard the Chair of CD2 say the group has heard from five different candidates for governor so far.  Besides Senator Marty, this meeting of the Central Committee also heard from Senator John Doll of SD40, who wasn’t speaking as a candidate, but was prodded to the front of the room in Senator Marty’s absence.  CD2 Congressional candidate Dan Powers spoke for a couple minutes about his personal history.  Candidate Mike Germain running for State Senate in SD37 spoke for a minute, followed by an opponent also seeking the DFL endorsement in SD37, Roberta Gibbons.

But if there was a keynote speaker for this event, it would have been Senator John Marty.  His presentation was definitely the highlight of the meeting.  It is no secret that I have not been a huge fan of John Marty, but he impressed me tonight.  He stood in front of the room, looking both casual and gubernatorial in a blue blazer and khaki pants.  He addressed his loss in 1994, which is my regular knock on him.  He quieted those concerns by pointing out that the themes in his 1994 campaign, equality, healthcare and the environment did not match the Newt Gingrich “Contract On America” which dominated the political spectrum that year.  His themes are much more relevant today.

And he is absolutely right.  There has been a big change that has occurred over the last six to eight years.  That change is really pushing the same issues John Marty was espousing a decade before.  Senator Marty’s presentation centered on the idea of looking ahead 20 years, and in a sense, he was looking ahead 20 year, 20 years ago.

What I really liked about John Marty’s presentation was his emphasis on standing up for what you believe in, even if it is unpopular.  In 1999 and 2000, he was the only Senator to vote no on the state’s tax cuts.  He didn’t vote no because he loves taxes.  He voted no because he didn’t believe the tax cuts were sustainable.  Looking at our last couple budgets, it sure seems like he was right.

He also is a leader in the proposal the create the MN Health Plan.  Senator Marty stressed that compromises will not solve the problem.  It is worth it to fight for the goal.  I could be swayed to move him to the graylist.

Results of the MNDem.com 2010 Governor Poll #1

Now that I moved the site to WordPress, I don’t have the 2010 Gubernatorial Poll available anymore.  Not to worry.  I love polls, and plan on doing another one in a couple months after more of the candidates get flushed out.

The results of the poll were not too surprising.  In the first couple of weeks, the two candidates whom I expect to push into the primary regardless of the endorsement, Mark Dayton and Matt Entenza, were leading.  However, while Entenza and Dayton stagnated in vote totals after the first week or so, John Marty and Paul Thissen kept chipping away at the lead.  The final results of the MNDem.com 2010 poll for Governor were:

Mark Dayton                                17 votes     29%
John Marty                                   15 votes     26%
Paul Thissen                                   9 votes      16%
Matt Entenza                                  8 votes      14%
Another DFLer                              7 votes      12%
Susan Gaertner                               1 vote        1%
The “Anointed” Republican      1 vote        1%
Tom Bakk                                         0 votes       0%
Steve Kelley                                    0 votes       0%

Total votes = 58 votes